Red Sox learning the hard way what happens when you assume
by Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports
The 2015 Red Sox were built under the assumptions that the team ...
... would not need an ace.
... would not need power relievers.
... would not need to reduce their surplus of outfielders.
... would not need to worry about Hanley Ramirez adapting to left field.
From the outset, all of those assumptions were suspect, if not outright flawed. And now, with the Sox in disarray -- firing their pitching coach, purging disappointing veterans, generating players-only meetings -- the questions are growing more disturbing.
Did the Red Sox grow so intoxicated by their 2013 World Series title that they lost their way? And if the answer is yes -- if the Sox actually finish below .500 for the third time in four seasons -- whom will ownership hold responsible?
The dismissal of pitching coach Juan Nieves, at least on the surface, appeared to be an over-reaction for a team that had acquired three new starting pitchers (four if you count Joe Kelly, who arrived last July 31), lost its top two catchers and constructed a shaky relief corps.
We might never know the true story on Nieves, if ownership demanded a scapegoat when the Sox stumbled after a 6-2 start and played to an alarming number of empty seats against the Yankees at Fenway Park.
Rival executives hold Nieves in high regard, and say it is not the style of Sox general manager Ben Cherington to assign blame to one individual. Cherington and manager John Farrell, however, took responsibility for the change, with Farrell citing, "the ability to maintain the consistency or affect change when needed ... that wasn't the same as we saw two years ago."
Farrell presumably had a large role in selecting Nieves' replacement, Carl Willis -- the two previously had worked together with the Indians. The entire episode, then, figures to increase the scrutiny on Farrell, who received a contract extension in February through 2017.
If anything, though, the Red Sox's faulty roster construction is on Cherington -- and on an ownership that probably could have signed left-hander Jon Lester to a five-year, $125 million extension a year ago, but low-balled him with a four-year, $70 million offer.
By now, we are all familiar with the Red Sox's aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s and preference for shorter, high-dollar contracts. The strategy worked in '13, when Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jonny Gomes contributed to a Series title. But the success emboldened the Sox, leading to a series of unfortunate decisions.
At the moment, the team's Triple A roster includes outfielders Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig, who are earning a combined $16 million this season, with $77.5 million more due. The demotion of Craig and struggles of Kelly make the initial return on the John Lackey trade look poor. And it's fair to question the wisdom of the Sox awarding contract extensions to Rick Porcello and especially Wade Miley before either ever threw a pitch for the team.
No, the AL East is not what it once was, but the division still is home to three of the game's top seven offenses (Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees). The idea that the Sox could somehow compete for a Series title without an ace never made sense. Now the team is in a compromised position, reducing its trade leverage. And the bullpen, which is nowhere near as good as, say, the Royals' or Yankees', risks being overworked.
The offense is good enough for the Sox to recover, presuming that Ramirez doesn't get completely freaked out -- or injured again -- playing left field. But the Sox cannot rely alone on prospects such as Eduardo Rodriguez to fix their rotation. And heaven knows how long their 40-year-old closer, Koji Uehara, will hold up.
Faulty assumptions. Disturbing questions. The 2015 Boston Red Sox.
Red Sox learning the hard way what happens when you assume