“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome” by Charlie Munger, I think
When Trump won the presidential election, I quickly invested all my savings into the US stock market because Trump had a huge incentive to cut corporate taxes & boost the stock market because it benefits himself and his wealthy billionaire backers.
Today, Trump’s greatest incentive & priority is to win the election again on 3rd November. Trump doesn’t need a voter majority, just that 40+% to get him that electoral college win. Those consist of a diverse mix of of evangelicals, pro-Israel, pro-gun, white supremacists, billionaires & perhaps most importantly middle income moderates swing voters who just want to protect their stock market investments.
So till 3rd November, Trump will try to talk down the Covid-19 threat and pump up the stock market even if it results in a far worse Covid-19 outbreak and ultimately ruined stock market & economy after that.
Don’t believe me - yesterday, the US released data that the economy shrank 4.8% in the 1st Qtr. Coincidentally on the same day, the Trump administration released a positive study on the drug, Remdesivir reducing Covid-19 hospitalization by 4 days. This study has been known to the medical community for some time because it was conducted in multiple countries but other world leaders have not mentioned it because it has not been verified via peer review.
Yet the Trump administration chose to release it to pump up the stock market. Trump wants to give false hope to consumers so they will go back to spending money. Yes, Remdesivir may be a breakthrough in drug development against Covid-19 like AZT for HIV according to Fauci. But when AZT was found to work back then, did Fauci tell people to forget about safe sex??!!
If proven to be effective, Remdesivir can merely reduce hospitalization by 4 days. It is not a replacement for testing & contact tracing of Covid-19 cases. Social distancing is still required to bring down the infection rate before the economy can safely reopen.
If you truly understand Trump’s incentives then you’ll know why he’s always talking down the real threat of Covid-19. He just wants everything to look nice and promising till 3rd Nov election even if what lies beneath is a crumbling economy & healthcare system that will plague us all for many years to come.